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未来简史_注释

尤瓦尔·赫拉利
科普学习
总共15章(已完结

未来简史 精彩片段:

注释

第1章

1. Tim Blanning,The Pursuit of Glory (New York:Penguin Books, 2008), 52.​​​​​​​​​

2. 同上,53.并请参见: J. Neumann and S. Lindgrén, ‘Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather:4, The Great Famines in Finland and Estonia, 1695–97’,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 60 (1979), 775–87; Andrew B. Appleby, ‘Epidemics and Famine in the Little Ice Age’,Journal of Interdisciplinary History 10:4 (1980):643–63; Cormac Ó Gráda and Jean-Michel Chevet, ‘Famine and Marke tinAncien Régime France’,Journal of Economic History 62:3 (2002), 706–73.​​​​​​​​​

3. Nicole Darmon et al., ‘L’insécurité alimentaire pour raisons financières en France’,Observatoire National de la Pauvreté et de l’Exclusion Sociale , https://www.onpes.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Darmon.pdf, accessed 3 March 2015; Rapport Annuel 2013,Banques Alimetaires , http://en.calameo.com/read/001358178ec47d2018425, accessed 4 March 2015.​​​​​​​​​

4. Richard Dobbs et al., ‘How the World Could Better Fight Obesity’, McKinseys & Company, November, 2014, accessed 11 December 2014, http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/how_the_world_could_better_fight_obesity.

5. ‘Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2013’,Lancet , 18 December 2014, accessed 18 December 2014, http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease; Stephen Adams, ‘Obesity Killing Three Times As Many As Malnutrition’,Telegraph , 13 December 2012, accessed 18 December 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9742960/Obesity-killing-three-times-as-many-as-malnutrition.html​​​​​​​​​

6. Robert S. Lopez,The Birth of Europe [in Hebrew] (Tel Aviv:Dvir, 1990), 427.​​​​​​​​​

7. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/Yersinia_pestis.jpg​​​​​​​​​

8. Alfred W. Crosby,The Columbian Exchange:Biological and Cultural Consequences of 1492 (Westport:Greenwood Press, 1972); William H. McNeill,Plagues and Peoples (Oxford:Basil Blackwell, 1977).​​​​​​​​​

9. Hugh Thomas,Conquest:Cortes,Montezuma and the Fall of Old Mexico (New York:Simon & Schuster, 1993), 443–6; Rodolfo Acuna-Soto et al., ‘Megadrought and Megadeath in 16th Century Mexico’,Historical Review 8:4 (2002), 360–2; Sherburne F. Cook and Lesley Byrd Simpson,The Population of Central Mexico in the Sixteenth Century (Berkeley:University of Califronia Press, 1948).​​​​​​​​​

10. Jared Diamond,Guns, Germs and Steel:The Fates of Human Societies [in Hebrew] (Tel Avia:Am Oved, 2002), 167.​​​​​​​​​

11. Jeffery K. Taubenberger and David M. Morens, ‘1918 Influenza:The Mother of All Pandemics’,Emerging Infectious Diseases 12:1 (2006), 15–22; Niall P. A. S. Johnson and Juergen Mueller, ‘Updating the Accounts:Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish”Influenza Pandemic’,Bulletin of the History of Medicine 76:1 (2002), 105–15; Stacey L. Knobler, Alison Mack, Adel Mahmoud et al., ed.,The Threat of Pandemic Influenza:Are We Ready?Workshop Summary (Washington DC:National Academies Press 2005), 57–110; David van Reybrouck,Congo:The Epic History of a People (New York:HarperCollins, 2014), 164; Siddharth Chandra, Goran Kuljanin and Jennifer Wray, ‘Mortality from the Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919:The Case of India’,Demography 49:3 (2012), 857–65; George C. Kohn,Encyclopedia of Plague and Pestilence:From Ancient Times to the Present , 3rd edn (New York:Facts on File, 2008), 363.​​​​​​​​​

12. 从2005年到2010年的平均值,分别是全球4.6%、非洲7.9%、欧洲和北美0.7%。参见: ‘Infant Mortality Rate (Both Sexes Combined) by Major Area, Region and Country, 1950–2010 (Infant Deaths for 1000 Live Births), estimates’,World Population Prospects: the 2010 Revision , UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, April 2011, accessed 26 May 2012, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm.同时参见Alain Bideau, Bertrand Desjardins, and Hector Perez-Brignoli, ed.,Infant and Child Mortality in the Past (Oxford:Clarendon Press, 1997); Edward Anthony Wrigley et al.,English Population Historyfrom Family Reconstitution, 1580 –1837 (Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1997), 295–6, 303.​​​​​​​​​

13. David A. Koplow, Smallpox:The Fight to Eradicate a Global Scourge (Berkeley:University of California Press, 2004); Abdel R. Omran, ‘The Epidemiological Transition:A Theory of Population Change’,Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 83:4 (2005), 731–57; Thomas McKeown,The Modern Rise of Populations (New York:Academic Press, 1976); Simon Szreter,Health and Wealth:Studies in History and Policy (Rochester:University of Rochester Press, 2005); Roderick Floud, Robert W. Fogel, Bernard Harris and Sok Chul Hong,The Changing Body:Health, Nutrition and Human Development in the Western World since 1700 (New York:Cambridge University Press, 2011); James C. Riley,Rising Life Expectancy:A Global History (New York:Cambridge University Press, 2001).​​​​​​​​​

作品简介:

进入21世纪后,曾经长期威胁人类生存、发展的瘟疫、饥荒和战争已经被攻克,智人面临着新的待办议题:永生不老、幸福快乐和成为具有“神性”的人类。在解决这些新问题的过程中,科学技术的发展将颠覆我们很多当下认为无需佐证的“常识”,比如人文主义所推崇的自由意志将面临严峻挑战,机器将会代替人类做出更明智的选择。

更重要的,当以大数据、人工智能为代表的科学技术发展的日益成熟,人类将面临着从进化到智人以来zui大的一次改变,绝大部分人将沦为“无价值的群体”,只有少部分人能进化成特质发生改变的 “神人”。

未来,人类将面临着三大问题:生物本身就是算法,生命是不断处理数据的过程;意识与智能的分离;拥有大数据积累的外部环境将比我们自己更了解自己。如何看待这三大问题,以及如何采取应对措施,将直接影响着人类未来的发展。

作者:尤瓦尔·赫拉利

翻译:林俊宏

标签:尤瓦尔·赫拉利未来简史人类学科普哲学

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